If WAS visited GSW today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +15.4 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

3.2

105.8

Offensive Rating

114.2

118.0

Defensive Rating

111.0

101.8

Pace

99.4

WAS (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

WAS wins

2026-03-27 WAS 126 @ GSW 131 GSW W

2026-03-16 WAS 125 @ GSW 117 WAS W

2025-01-18 WAS 114 @ GSW 122 GSW W

2024-11-04 WAS 125 @ GSW 112 WAS W

2024-02-27 WAS 123 @ GSW 112 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score