If WAS visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +16.8 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

4.6

105.8

Offensive Rating

114.9

118.0

Defensive Rating

110.3

101.8

Pace

99.0

WAS (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

WAS wins

2026-03-02 WAS 123 @ HOU 118 WAS W

2025-11-12 WAS 112 @ HOU 135 HOU W

2025-01-07 WAS 135 @ HOU 112 WAS W

2024-11-11 WAS 92 @ HOU 107 HOU W

2024-03-19 WAS 137 @ HOU 114 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score