If WAS visited PHI today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.9 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

-6.3

105.8

Offensive Rating

111.0

118.0

Defensive Rating

117.3

101.8

Pace

98.1

WAS (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

WAS wins

2026-04-01 WAS 153 @ PHI 131 WAS W

2026-01-07 WAS 110 @ PHI 131 PHI W

2025-12-02 WAS 102 @ PHI 121 PHI W

2025-10-28 WAS 139 @ PHI 134 WAS W

2025-04-09 WAS 122 @ PHI 103 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score