If WAS visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.5 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

-2.7

105.8

Offensive Rating

111.0

118.0

Defensive Rating

113.7

101.8

Pace

99.5

WAS (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

WAS wins

2026-03-29 WAS 88 @ POR 123 POR W

2026-01-27 WAS 111 @ POR 115 POR W

2025-03-17 WAS 97 @ POR 112 POR W

2025-02-26 WAS 129 @ POR 121 WAS W

2024-04-05 WAS 108 @ POR 102 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score