If WAS visited SAC today, our model would lean Sacramento Kings with a 74.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.8 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

0.6

105.8

Offensive Rating

115.9

118.0

Defensive Rating

115.3

101.8

Pace

98.9

WAS (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

WAS wins

2026-02-01 WAS 112 @ SAC 116 SAC W

2026-01-16 WAS 115 @ SAC 128 SAC W

2025-04-02 WAS 111 @ SAC 116 SAC W

2025-01-19 WAS 100 @ SAC 123 SAC W

2024-03-21 WAS 102 @ SAC 109 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score