If WAS visited UTA today, our model would lean Utah Jazz with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.0 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

-9.2

105.8

Offensive Rating

110.2

118.0

Defensive Rating

119.4

101.8

Pace

100.8

WAS (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

WAS wins

2026-03-25 WAS 133 @ UTA 110 WAS W

2026-03-05 WAS 122 @ UTA 112 WAS W

2025-03-19 WAS 112 @ UTA 128 UTA W

2025-03-05 WAS 122 @ UTA 125 UTA W

2024-03-04 WAS 115 @ UTA 127 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score