If CHA visited MIA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.5 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

0.4

106.7

Offensive Rating

112.4

115.7

Defensive Rating

112.0

98.2

Pace

97.1

CHA (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

CHA wins

2026-03-17 CHA 106 @ MIA 136 MIA W

2026-03-06 CHA 128 @ MIA 120 CHA W

2025-11-07 CHA 108 @ MIA 126 MIA W

2025-10-28 CHA 117 @ MIA 144 MIA W

2025-03-23 CHA 105 @ MIA 122 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score