If MIA visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.0 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

9.4

112.4

Offensive Rating

119.5

112.0

Defensive Rating

110.1

97.1

Pace

96.6

MIA (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

MIA wins

2026-04-01 MIA 147 @ BOS 129 MIA W

2026-02-06 MIA 96 @ BOS 98 BOS W

2026-01-15 MIA 119 @ BOS 114 MIA W

2025-12-19 MIA 116 @ BOS 129 BOS W

2025-04-02 MIA 124 @ BOS 103 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score