If MIA visited BKN today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.7 points for BKN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-7.3

112.4

Offensive Rating

108.1

112.0

Defensive Rating

115.4

97.1

Pace

96.7

MIA (Away) BKN (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

BKN wins

MIA wins

2026-03-05 MIA 110 @ BKN 126 BKN W

2026-03-03 MIA 98 @ BKN 124 BKN W

2025-12-18 MIA 106 @ BKN 95 MIA W

2025-02-07 MIA 86 @ BKN 102 BKN W

2025-01-25 MIA 106 @ BKN 97 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score