If MIA visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.5 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-9.1

112.4

Offensive Rating

106.7

112.0

Defensive Rating

115.7

97.1

Pace

98.2

MIA (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

MIA wins

2026-03-17 MIA 106 @ CHA 136 CHA W

2026-03-06 MIA 128 @ CHA 120 MIA W

2025-11-07 MIA 108 @ CHA 126 CHA W

2025-10-28 MIA 117 @ CHA 144 CHA W

2025-03-23 MIA 105 @ CHA 122 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score