If MIA visited CHI today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.0 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-1.6

112.4

Offensive Rating

113.2

112.0

Defensive Rating

114.8

97.1

Pace

103.6

MIA (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

MIA wins

2026-02-01 MIA 91 @ CHI 134 CHI W

2026-01-31 MIA 125 @ CHI 118 MIA W

2026-01-29 MIA 116 @ CHI 113 MIA W

2025-11-21 MIA 143 @ CHI 107 MIA W

2025-04-09 MIA 111 @ CHI 119 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score