If MIA visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.8 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

9.2

112.4

Offensive Rating

121.0

112.0

Defensive Rating

111.8

97.1

Pace

100.3

MIA (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

MIA wins

2026-03-27 MIA 128 @ CLE 149 CLE W

2026-03-25 MIA 120 @ CLE 103 MIA W

2025-11-12 MIA 130 @ CLE 116 MIA W

2025-11-10 MIA 138 @ CLE 140 CLE W

2025-04-28 MIA 138 @ CLE 83 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score