If MIA visited DAL today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.7 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-1.3

112.4

Offensive Rating

113.7

112.0

Defensive Rating

115.0

97.1

Pace

100.2

MIA (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

MIA wins

2025-12-03 MIA 108 @ DAL 118 DAL W

2025-11-24 MIA 102 @ DAL 106 DAL W

2025-02-13 MIA 113 @ DAL 118 DAL W

2024-11-24 MIA 118 @ DAL 123 DAL W

2024-04-10 MIA 111 @ DAL 92 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score