If MIA visited GSW today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.8 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

3.2

112.4

Offensive Rating

114.2

112.0

Defensive Rating

111.0

97.1

Pace

99.4

MIA (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

MIA wins

2026-01-19 MIA 112 @ GSW 135 GSW W

2025-11-19 MIA 96 @ GSW 110 GSW W

2025-03-25 MIA 86 @ GSW 112 GSW W

2025-01-07 MIA 114 @ GSW 98 MIA W

2024-03-26 MIA 113 @ GSW 92 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score