If MIA visited IND today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.7 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

2.1

112.4

Offensive Rating

115.4

112.0

Defensive Rating

113.3

97.1

Pace

100.8

MIA (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

MIA wins

2026-03-29 MIA 118 @ IND 135 IND W

2026-01-10 MIA 99 @ IND 123 IND W

2025-12-27 MIA 116 @ IND 142 IND W

2025-02-28 MIA 120 @ IND 125 IND W

2025-01-02 MIA 128 @ IND 115 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score