If MIA visited LAC today, our model would lean Los Angeles Clippers with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.5 points for LAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

4.9

112.4

Offensive Rating

114.3

112.0

Defensive Rating

109.4

97.1

Pace

98.2

MIA (Away) LAC (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

LAC 42-40 W1 Avg margin last 5: +2.0

W GSW

L POR

L OKC

W DAL

W SAC

Head-to-Head History

LAC wins

MIA wins

2025-12-01 MIA 123 @ LAC 140 LAC W

2025-11-03 MIA 120 @ LAC 119 MIA W

2025-03-12 MIA 119 @ LAC 104 MIA W

2025-01-13 MIA 98 @ LAC 109 LAC W

2024-02-04 MIA 103 @ LAC 95 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score