If MIA visited MEM today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.3 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

4.7

112.4

Offensive Rating

117.2

112.0

Defensive Rating

112.6

97.1

Pace

103.7

MIA (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

MIA wins

2026-02-21 MIA 120 @ MEM 136 MEM W

2025-10-24 MIA 146 @ MEM 114 MIA W

2025-04-03 MIA 110 @ MEM 108 MIA W

2025-03-15 MIA 91 @ MEM 125 MEM W

2024-01-24 MIA 105 @ MEM 96 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score