If MIA visited MIL today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.0 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

2.4

112.4

Offensive Rating

115.1

112.0

Defensive Rating

112.7

97.1

Pace

99.9

MIA (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

MIA wins

2026-03-12 MIA 105 @ MIL 112 MIL W

2026-02-24 MIA 117 @ MIL 128 MIL W

2025-11-26 MIA 103 @ MIL 106 MIL W

2025-04-05 MIA 121 @ MIL 115 MIA W

2025-02-23 MIA 113 @ MIL 120 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score