If MIA visited NYK today, our model would lean New York Knicks with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.6 points for NYK at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

4.0

112.4

Offensive Rating

117.3

112.0

Defensive Rating

113.3

97.1

Pace

97.6

MIA (Away) NYK (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

NYK 65-31 W11 Avg margin last 5: +21.4

W CLE

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

NYK wins

MIA wins

2025-12-21 MIA 125 @ NYK 132 NYK W

2025-11-17 MIA 113 @ NYK 115 NYK W

2025-11-14 MIA 132 @ NYK 140 NYK W

2025-10-26 MIA 107 @ NYK 115 NYK W

2025-03-17 MIA 95 @ NYK 116 NYK W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score