If MIA visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.3 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

12.7

112.4

Offensive Rating

119.2

112.0

Defensive Rating

106.6

97.1

Pace

100.9

MIA (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

MIA wins

2026-01-17 MIA 120 @ OKC 122 OKC W

2026-01-11 MIA 112 @ OKC 124 OKC W

2025-02-12 MIA 101 @ OKC 115 OKC W

2024-12-20 MIA 104 @ OKC 97 MIA W

2024-03-08 MIA 100 @ OKC 107 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score