If MIA visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.6 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-0.2

112.4

Offensive Rating

108.9

112.0

Defensive Rating

109.1

97.1

Pace

96.5

MIA (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

MIA wins

2026-03-14 MIA 121 @ ORL 117 MIA W

2026-01-28 MIA 133 @ ORL 124 MIA W

2025-12-09 MIA 108 @ ORL 117 ORL W

2025-12-05 MIA 105 @ ORL 106 ORL W

2025-10-22 MIA 121 @ ORL 125 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score