If MIA visited POR today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 57.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.1 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-2.7

112.4

Offensive Rating

111.0

112.0

Defensive Rating

113.7

97.1

Pace

99.5

MIA (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

MIA wins

2026-01-22 MIA 110 @ POR 127 POR W

2025-11-08 MIA 131 @ POR 136 POR W

2025-01-21 MIA 116 @ POR 107 MIA W

2025-01-11 MIA 119 @ POR 98 MIA W

2024-03-29 MIA 82 @ POR 142 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score