If MIA visited SAC today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.2 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

0.6

112.4

Offensive Rating

115.9

112.0

Defensive Rating

115.3

97.1

Pace

98.9

MIA (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

MIA wins

2026-01-20 MIA 130 @ SAC 117 MIA W

2025-12-06 MIA 127 @ SAC 111 MIA W

2025-01-06 MIA 118 @ SAC 123 SAC W

2024-11-04 MIA 111 @ SAC 110 MIA W

2024-02-26 MIA 121 @ SAC 110 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score