If MIA visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.2 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-2.8

112.4

Offensive Rating

113.5

112.0

Defensive Rating

116.3

97.1

Pace

100.1

MIA (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

MIA wins

2026-03-23 MIA 136 @ SAS 111 MIA W

2025-10-30 MIA 101 @ SAS 107 SAS W

2025-02-01 MIA 105 @ SAS 103 MIA W

2025-01-19 MIA 107 @ SAS 128 SAS W

2024-02-07 MIA 104 @ SAS 116 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score