If MIA visited UTA today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.6 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-9.2

112.4

Offensive Rating

110.2

112.0

Defensive Rating

119.4

97.1

Pace

100.8

MIA (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

MIA wins

2026-02-09 MIA 115 @ UTA 111 MIA W

2026-01-24 MIA 147 @ UTA 116 MIA W

2025-01-09 MIA 97 @ UTA 92 MIA W

2025-01-04 MIA 136 @ UTA 100 MIA W

2024-03-02 MIA 120 @ UTA 126 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score