If MIA visited WAS today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.6 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-12.2

112.4

Offensive Rating

105.8

112.0

Defensive Rating

118.0

97.1

Pace

101.8

MIA (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

MIA wins

2026-04-10 MIA 140 @ WAS 117 MIA W

2026-04-04 MIA 136 @ WAS 152 WAS W

2026-03-10 MIA 129 @ WAS 150 WAS W

2026-02-08 MIA 132 @ WAS 101 MIA W

2025-04-13 MIA 119 @ WAS 118 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score