If NOP visited MIA today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.8 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

0.4

109.7

Offensive Rating

112.4

119.1

Defensive Rating

112.0

99.8

Pace

97.1

NOP (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

NOP wins

2026-02-11 NOP 123 @ MIA 111 NOP W

2026-01-04 NOP 106 @ MIA 125 MIA W

2025-04-11 NOP 153 @ MIA 104 NOP W

2025-01-01 NOP 108 @ MIA 119 MIA W

2024-03-22 NOP 111 @ MIA 88 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score