If NYK visited MIA today, our model would lean New York Knicks with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.6 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.0

Net Rating

0.4

117.3

Offensive Rating

112.4

113.3

Defensive Rating

112.0

97.6

Pace

97.1

NYK (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

NYK 65-31 W11 Avg margin last 5: +21.4

W CLE

W PHI

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

NYK wins

2025-12-21 NYK 125 @ MIA 132 MIA W

2025-11-17 NYK 113 @ MIA 115 MIA W

2025-11-14 NYK 132 @ MIA 140 MIA W

2025-10-26 NYK 107 @ MIA 115 MIA W

2025-03-17 NYK 95 @ MIA 116 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score