If POR visited MIA today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 57.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.1 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

0.4

111.0

Offensive Rating

112.4

113.7

Defensive Rating

112.0

99.5

Pace

97.1

POR (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

POR wins

2026-01-22 POR 110 @ MIA 127 MIA W

2025-11-08 POR 131 @ MIA 136 MIA W

2025-01-21 POR 116 @ MIA 107 POR W

2025-01-11 POR 119 @ MIA 98 POR W

2024-03-29 POR 82 @ MIA 142 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score