If SAS visited MIA today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.2 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

0.4

113.5

Offensive Rating

112.4

116.3

Defensive Rating

112.0

100.1

Pace

97.1

SAS (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

SAS wins

2026-03-23 SAS 136 @ MIA 111 SAS W

2025-10-30 SAS 101 @ MIA 107 MIA W

2025-02-01 SAS 105 @ MIA 103 SAS W

2025-01-19 SAS 107 @ MIA 128 MIA W

2024-02-07 SAS 104 @ MIA 116 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score