If UTA visited MIA today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.6 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

0.4

110.2

Offensive Rating

112.4

119.4

Defensive Rating

112.0

100.8

Pace

97.1

UTA (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

UTA wins

2026-02-09 UTA 115 @ MIA 111 UTA W

2026-01-24 UTA 147 @ MIA 116 UTA W

2025-01-09 UTA 97 @ MIA 92 UTA W

2025-01-04 UTA 136 @ MIA 100 UTA W

2024-03-02 UTA 120 @ MIA 126 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score